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Analyst Says Scottish IndyRef Re-Run Blocked by BoJo Could be Risky for SNP_我的网站

A |     AI摘要      国民党公布民调显示，基隆市长谢国梁施政满意度超五成五，在三大选区支持度全面领先民进党参选人童子玮。

B |     Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。童子玮阵营质疑民调动机，称无需放数据壮胆。         中国国民党基隆市党部22日公布委托“公信力民意调查公司”于8月1日至17日进行的民意调查结果，数据显示，现任基隆市市长谢国梁在施政表现上获得广大市民肯定，各区满意度均高达五成五以上；在对决民进党参选人、赖清德表侄童子玮的对比式民调中，谢国梁更在中正区、信义区及中山区三大选区呈现全面大幅领先态势，显见基隆市民对谢市长两年多来积极推动市政、深耕地方成果的有感与信任。         国民党基隆市党部表示，谢国梁施政稳健，据民调结果显示满意度破五成五，代表市民高度肯定市府团队作为。根据民调数据，基隆市民对谢国梁的整体施政表现给予高度评价，包括信义区满意度高达58.4%、中正区满意度也达到57.3%、中山区满意度则达55.9%，三大区域的满意度平均皆在五成六，显示市府团队近年在交通改善、儿童休闲设施打造、观光发展及弱势关怀等市政建设上的努力，得到了跨区域市民一致的肯定。    国民党基隆市党部也指出，谢国梁在报告公布的三个选区中均展现出显著的领先优势。

C | 在信义区，谢国梁获得44.9%的支持度，大幅领先童子玮的28.0%，领先幅度达16.9个百分点。在中山区，谢国梁支持度为40.7%，童子玮为29.1%，谢国梁稳定领先11.6个百分点。在中正区，谢国梁支持度为38.5%，童子玮为30.6%，谢国梁领先7.9个百分点。无论是绿营传统强势区域或是新兴住宅区，谢国梁皆以扎实的基层凝聚力与施政表现获得市民跨党派的支持，领先差距有目共睹。

D |     国民党基隆市党部认为，实际做事胜过政治口水，谢国梁市长持续以市民福祉为优先，这份民调证明了“政绩就是最好的宣传”。    对此，童子玮竞选办回应称，如果真的领先这么多，何须放出民调壮胆？。

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